中国近地面PM2.5浓度与排放的时空分布及其关联分析     

冯子钰  施润和 《地球信息科学学报》2021,23(7):1221-1230

PM_2.5是威胁人体健康的主要大气污染物之一。大量研究关注近地面PM_2.5浓度的监测及其时空分布,但目前针对PM_2.5排放及其与近地面浓度之间的关联研究较为缺乏。本文通过2000—2014年近地面PM_2.5浓度格网数据和PM_2.5排放格网数据,采用长时间序列分析法对PM_2.5浓度和PM_2.5排放从定性和定量两个角度进行时空变化趋势对比研究,并进一步结合标准差椭圆法和趋势分析法,分析了我国近地面PM_2.5浓度和PM_2.5排放的时空变化特征及其关联。结果表明,从总体时间序列趋势上,近地面PM_2.5浓度和PM_2.5排放之间在空间分布上基本呈现一致性,集中在胡焕庸线以东的人口密集区,但在时间上,PM_2.5浓度和排放之间存在动态变化时间差。且PM_2.5浓度的变化更为明显,2000—2007年高于35 μg/m³的国土面积占比增加了14.26%,2007—2014年减少了2.84%;从标准差椭圆分析来看,PM_2.5浓度椭圆和排放椭圆在覆盖面积和方位角上与人口和经济分布吻合,但前者面积更大,长轴更接近于东西方向,二者存在约17°差异,而两类椭圆的中心位置随时间变化呈现出较一致的轨迹特征并呈现出滞后特点;此外,受大气扩散、点源排放等因素影响,PM_2.5浓度变化趋势与排放变化趋势在胡焕庸线以东并不完全一致,部分区域排放呈降低趋势而浓度则反而呈升高趋势。因此,从全国层面来看,减排政策对浓度降低在时间上虽存在滞后,但边际效益显著,并已显露成效;而从局地来看,受地形、气象条件和大气化学过程等复杂影响,二者的变化在空间上仍会存在差异,有待进一步深入研究;从防控措施来看,在继续加强落实本地减排政策的同时,应考虑污染物的扩散迁移规律,加强联防联控,有效改善空气质量。  相似文献   

利用主成分分析法分析GNSS坐标时间序列     

刘晓祥  高二涛  罗益  付波霖 《大地测量与地球动力学》2021,41(1):43-48

利用主成分分析法对陆态网224个GNSS基准站坐标时间序列进行分析。首先对基准站原始坐标序列进行突变项拟合、粗差剔除、缺失数据插值补齐等预处理;然后对预处理后的站点残差坐标时间序列分N、E、U方向组建时间序列矩阵进行主成分分析,根据各方向主分量及其相应的空间特征向量分析站点空间响应分布特征、共模误差以及异常站点的影响。结果表明,仅通过第1主分量不能准确体现共模误差的时空特点,因此将前3个主分量纳入共模误差分析;华北地区、西北地区以及云南地区各方向主分量显示出相对一致的空间响应分布,可能是水储量变化导致的;对比剔除异常站点前后的PAC结果发现,N、E、U方向第1、2主分量的贡献率变化明显,U方向表现最为显著,其中第1主分量贡献率分别提高2.0% (N)、3.9% (E)、5.7% (U),第2主分量则分别下降1.1% (N)、1.9% (E)、6.7% (U),剔除异常站点后,站点的空间响应得到明显提高。  相似文献   

Prophet模型在GNSS坐标时间序列中的插值分析     

李威  鲁铁定  贺小星  刘瑞 《大地测量与地球动力学》2021,41(4):362-367

针对GNSS坐标时间序列中存在数据缺失的问题,提出将Prophet模型应用于GNSS坐标时间序列的插值中。设计不同的数据随机缺失比例和连续缺失长度,使用Prophet模型、拉格朗日法和三次样条法进行对比实验。结果表明,Prophet模型在GNSS坐标时间序列中具有更高的插值精度并能够保持较好的稳定性,且对于连续缺失的数据插值有着明显的优势。  相似文献   

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任夏  杨元喜 《大地测量与地球动力学》2014,34(2):115-119

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稳恒水波的Fourier近似解研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHAO Hongjun  SONG Zhiyao  LI Ling  KONG Jun 《海洋学报(英文版)》2014,33(5):37-47

A computational method for steady water waves is presented on the basis of potential theory in the physical plane with spatial variables as independent quantities. The finite Fourier series are applied to approximating the free surface and potential function. A set of nonlinear algebraic equations for the Fourier coefficients are derived from the free surface kinetic and dynamic boundary conditions. These algebraic equations are numerically solved through Newton＇s iterative method, and the iterative stability is further improved by a relaxation technology. The integral properties of steady water waves are numerically analyzed, showing that （1） the set-up and the set-down are both non-monotonic quantities with the wave steepness, and （2） the Fourier spectrum of the free surface is broader than that of the potential function. The latter further leads us to explore a modification for the present method by approximating the free surface and potential function through different Fourier series, with the truncation of the former higher than that of the latter. Numerical tests show that this modification is effective, and can notably reduce the errors of the free surface boundary conditions.  相似文献   

我国留学生人数的预测及其对居民消费的影响     

冯志平  余东 《南京气象学院学报》2014,6(4):369-373

采用1985-2012年数据,利用时间序列分析方法,建立了刻画我国出国留学人数变动的模型ARIMA（2,2,2）,得到较好的预测效果.同时研究了出国留学人数与我国城镇居民人均消费性支出之间的关系,建立了相应的模型,并进行了Granger 因果关系检验.结果表明：出国留学生数的对数每增加1%,城镇居民人均消费性支出的对数将增加近0.06%.  相似文献   

多变量时间序列滑动窗口异常点的检测     

戴慧  阚建飞  李伟仁  周卫东 《南京气象学院学报》2014,6(6):515-519

针对多变量时间序列(MTS)的异常点的探测问题,提出了采用由粗到细的二次探测方案.基于滑动窗口数据的置信区间,构造了变化趋势值特征和相对变化趋势值特征分别用于二次探测,同时研究了特征的快速提取算法.通过对OPEN3000数据监测系统采集的事故发生前后某市城南变电站各设备表的数据集进行异常点探测,结果表明提出的算法能够快速准确地探测出异常点的位置.  相似文献   

内蒙古中部地区中-新元古代黑色岩系中的金矿床及找矿远景          下载免费PDF全文

荣丹文  张劼  荣晓伟  李建伏  高伯兴 《山东国土资源》2014,30(3):51-55

内蒙古中部地区中—新元古代黑色岩系发育,形成于渣尔泰-白云鄂博裂陷槽内,命名为渣尔泰群和白云鄂博群。目前,仅在白云鄂博群的黑色岩系中发现并勘查了一批原生金矿。矿石主要类型为细脉型和蚀变变质岩型。金矿受层位和构造破碎带控制,金平均品位低,可形成大型或超大型矿床。因此,内蒙古中部中—新元古代黑色岩系中金矿资源潜力大,找矿远景好。  相似文献   

Forest cover classification using Landsat ETM+ data and time series MODIS NDVI data     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2014

Forest cover plays a key role in climate change by influencing the carbon stocks, the hydrological cycle and the energy balance. Forest cover information can be determined from fine-resolution data, such as Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). However, forest cover classification with fine-resolution data usually uses only one temporal data because successive data acquirement is difficult. It may achieve mis-classification result without involving vegetation growth information, because different vegetation types may have the similar spectral features in the fine-resolution data. To overcome these issues, a forest cover classification method using Landsat ETM+ data appending with time series Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data was proposed. The objective was to investigate the potential of temporal features extracted from coarse-resolution time series vegetation index data on improving the forest cover classification accuracy using fine-resolution remote sensing data. This method firstly fused Landsat ETM+ NDVI and MODIS NDVI data to obtain time series fine-resolution NDVI data, and then the temporal features were extracted from the fused NDVI data. Finally, temporal features combined with Landsat ETM+ spectral data was used to improve forest cover classification accuracy using supervised classifier. The study in North China region confirmed that time series NDVI features had significant effects on improving forest cover classification accuracy of fine resolution remote sensing data. The NDVI features extracted from time series fused NDVI data could improve the overall classification accuracy approximately 5% from 88.99% to 93.88% compared to only using single Landsat ETM+ data.  相似文献   

Historical forest biomass dynamics modelled with Landsat spectral trajectories     

《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2014

Estimation of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is informative of the role of forest ecosystems in local and global carbon budgets. There is a need to retrospectively estimate biomass in order to establish a historical baseline and enable reporting of change. In this research, we used temporal spectral trajectories to inform on forest successional development status in support of modelling and mapping of historic AGB for Mediterranean pines in central Spain. AGB generated with ground plot data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory (NFI), representing two collection periods (1990 and 2000), are linked with static and dynamic spectral data as captured by Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) sensors over a 25 year period (1984–2009). The importance of forest structural complexity on the relationship between AGB and spectral vegetation indices is revealed by the analysis of wavelet transforms. Two-dimensional (2D) wavelet transforms support the identification of spectral trajectory patterns of forest stands that in turn, are associated with traits of individual NFI plots, using a flexible algorithm sensitive to capturing time series similarity. Single-date spectral indices, temporal trajectories, and temporal derivatives associated with succession are used as input variables to non-parametric decision trees for modelling, estimation, and mapping of AGB and carbon sinks over the entire study area. Results indicate that patterns of change found in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values are associated and relate well to classes of forest AGB. The Tasseled Cap Angle (TCA) index was found to be strongly related with forest density, although the related patterns of change had little relation with variability in historic AGB. By scaling biomass models through small (∼2.5 ha) spatial objects defined by spectral homogeneity, the AGB dynamics in the period 1990–2000 are mapped (70% accuracy when validated with plot values of change), revealing an increase of 18% in AGB irregularly distributed over 814 km² of pines. The accumulation of C calculated in AGB was on average 0.65 t ha⁻¹ y⁻¹, equivalent to a fixation of 2.38 t ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ of carbon dioxide.  相似文献